Independent Research
Is this SaaS business worth the risk?
Independent valuation and risk analysis for micro-SaaS businesses listed on Acquire.com, Flippa, and TrustMRR. Each report covers the numbers, the risks, and an S&P-style rating.
Rating scale
Coverage
2 listedCompany
MRR
Asking
Multiple
Fair Value
Methodology
How every analysis is built
Every report follows the same six-step framework. No shortcuts, no gut calls — just the numbers and what they mean.
01
Revenue quality
MRR composition, growth trend, churn rate, and revenue concentration. We want to know whether the revenue is real, sticky, and growing — or propped up by a handful of customers on month-to-month plans.
02
Comparable multiples
We benchmark the asking price against recent comparable deals on Acquire.com, Flippa, and TrustMRR. Premium multiples require demonstrably growing MRR and low churn — most listings don't qualify.
03
Fair value model
Using DCF analysis and ARR multiple benchmarking, we produce a fair value range (low / high) and compare it to the asking price. A premium above fair value without justification is a red flag.
04
Risk framework
Eight dimensions: key-person dependency, technical risk, customer concentration, competitive moat, churn sustainability, market saturation, founder-sales dependency, and API or margin exposure.
05
Return scenarios
We model three outcomes: flat MRR (base case), realistic growth (e.g. unlocking existing users), and acquisition at fair value midpoint. This gives a payback period and implied IRR for each scenario.
06
Rating
Everything above feeds a single S&P-style grade — AAA to D. The rating reflects both the risk level and the quality of the deal at the current asking price, not just the business in isolation.
Case Study
What a report looks like
A condensed view of a real published analysis — the same framework applied to every listing we evaluate.
Atlas
A subscription SaaS learning platform for students with ~3,175 paying subscribers. Based onavailable data, we estimate fair value at $400,000–$800,000 — the business may command more with verified financials. The asking price of $1.25M appears above current estimate.
MRR
$30.9k
ARR
$371k
Asking
$1250k
Risk Factors · 7.5/10
- MRR down 32.7% from April 2025 peak ($45,936) — decline has not yet stabilised
- Churn rate undisclosed
- Asking price at 3.4× ARR and 40× MRR
- Only 21 months of history — too short to separate trend from noise or seasonality
Valuation
Seen a listing you want analysed?
Send it over and we will run through the numbers — valuation, risk factors, and an honest rating.